2023 Ontario Provincial Budget

1. Budget Overview
2. Skilled Trades
- 2.1. Union training halls investment
- 2.2. Overview of announcements

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The analysis is simple:

Massive amount of tax cuts and tax credits announced, but no guarantee that these will be spent as they rely on capital investing their own money first. These are just after-the-fact profit subsidies in most cases.
Many of the credits are for “small businesses in Ontario”. So, even less of that money will be spent since small businesses do not pay much tax in the first place.
We need to look closer at the Personal Income Tax Credit for flow-through shares for mining. This seems very focused and small.
The focus on skilled trades is discussed below, but makes little sense. They seem to have gone so overboard on this that they have created a degree I have never hear of in the college system:
- a Bachelor of Skilled Trades Business Management

There was some car stuff in there for supports for the EV sector, but I think it was all announced before. There was also some small supports for Steel manufacturing in the transition to “green” production and mostly announced before or the government taking credit for capital investments already made.

There are some infrastructure products we should keep and eye on or release information on:

New hospital
New Transit buys
Ontario Northlander
Medical digitization

The hospitals because they are likely privatized under this government. The rail because I don’t think any of it is actually made in Ontario. Certainly not Northlander. The digital plan because this looks like privatization and contracting to some big evil tech company.

For all the talk about training, it is really just direct student supports, incentives for really young people and immigrants to be PSWs, labourers, and maybe some nurses/doctors (300 more) and building redundant private “training centres” everywhere. Barely anything for universities.

So, all this talk about “made in Ontario” and the only things that seem to be made here in this budget are roads.

1. Budget Overview

Conservative economic models show a 4.4B surplus by 2025.
Bet on inflation returning to 2% by 2024.
Estimated population 2042: 20 million people

1.1. Mining (North)

Exploration: $200,000 in Ontario Junior Exploration Program
$3M for two years: OJEP
$4M per year: Critical Mining Stream
Personal Income Tax for flow-through shares
Ontario Focused Flow-Through Share Tax Credit for mineral exploration
federal Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit
Total $25M

1.2. Infrastructure

Total 2023-2024: $20.635B
Total 2024-2025: $25.772B

1.3. Tax credit for manufacturing

Limit of $20 million in a taxation year.
Qualifying investments: capital property included in Class 1 or Class 53 for capital cost allowance purposes.
Ontario income tax support of $750m over 3 years for Canadian-controlled private corporations.
Total available: estimated $8 billion in 2023
- $3.6 billion for small businesses

1.4. Removing covid paid sick days

Expire on March 31, 2023

1.5. Removing Municipal supports for COVID

Previously announced elimination of fiscal support for municipalities dealing with COVID-related deficits.

1.6. Claims Modernization: Health care digital services

digital health services procurement process
New “Innovation Pathway” with Supply Ontario

1.7. Transport

A lot of highway building. Not reviewed as all previously announced.
Purchasing three new trainsets $139.5M to restore the Northlander passenger rail service to provide. The new rail cars will be built by Siemens Mobility Limited (not in Ontario)
New transit: the Hazel McCallion Line and Finch West Light Rail Transit projects.

1.8. Marine

Marine Transport Strategy to be created with consultation.

1.9. Oak Valley Health – Uxbridge Hospital

New hospital build with LTC attached.

1.10. University and college capital grants

$5.4 billion in the Postsecondary Education sector
- Includes $2 billion in capital grants over 10 years.

1.11. Mental health

Additional $425 million over three years (to the $3.8B over ten from 2022)

2. Skilled Trades

2.1. Union training halls investment

$224 million in 2023–24
For in-demand careers: up to $28,000 for short‐term training programs, such as micro‐credentials.
$15 million for youth, gig workers, newcomers and those on social assistance who face barriers finding stable jobs.

2.2. Overview of announcements

Full analysis is here on why this focus on skilled trades makes no sense economically.

New “Working for Workers Act, 2023”
Grade 11 apprenticeships counting for a year of high school
(2) Women’s washrooms on site.
Immigration and International Student pathways to skilled trades and other government selected employment classifications.
- Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program outlines application and selection based on job classification criteria for fast pathway to immigration status.

$3.3M over three years to expand “dual credit” for health care-related jobs for 1400 highschool students.
- Focus: LTC and homecare jobs.
Grade 7-12: ontario Secondary School Diploma: to becoming nurses, personal support workers, paramedics or medical laboratory technicians. This funding will also provide additional opportunities for up to 6,000 students in Grades 7 to 12 over the next three years to take part in hands‐on health care‐related activities across Ontario.

With the expansion of dual credit opportunities, close to 27,000 students in 2023–24 will have the opportunity to earn credits towards their Ontario Secondary School Diploma and a postsecondary certificate, diploma, degree or a Certificate of Apprenticeship. In addition to health care‐related programs, there are also dual credit courses in other areas of focus, including skilled trades, technology and Early Childhood Education.