September 27, 2024

Real GDP in Canada continues to grow more slowly than expected by the "market".

The drag on growth has come from wildfires disrupting transport and supply chains in much of the Western part of the country. For a second year, fires have stopped the shipping and therefore slowed the production of oil, oil products, iron ore, and other mining.

wildfires burning in Jasper temporarily halted some rail freight movements to and from key ports on the British Columbia Coast. Wheat loadings, for example, posted a year-over-year decrease of 10.3% (-207 000 tonnes) after three consecutive months of increases. Meanwhile, loadings of fresh, chilled, or dried vegetables were down 65.3% (-112 000 tonnes) from July 2023 levels.

Manufacturing continues to be higher because of filling production parts orders in the auto sector as the global supply chain waffles from one shortage to another generating spikes and lows of production.

The impact of the slow-down from the shutdown of rail by CN and CPKC due to their attack on the right to strike (and bargaining with Teamsters Canada Rail Conference) will not be released until late October. It will be interesting to see if the effect of that planned shutdown will have an effect similar to the size of their inability to operate in the face of climate related issues.

CPKC and CN have outlined that their objective is changing the bargaining paradigm in Canada. Their stated goal is compulsory interest arbitration and "interest based" bargaining. Many in the legal community have stated that the employers are making a flimsy legal argument on the application of Section 107 in the Canada Labour Code (and honestly I cannot tell the difference as I am not a layer).

However, I think it is a popular narrative war as much as a legal one. Capital wants to set an expectation that the state will intervene on their behalf.

The government basically agrees with this line of reasoning even if they complain about "being forced" to intervene. But, we should not be fooled, even the question asked by the government after their port strike "intervention" using 107 is what is "broken about the structure of labour negotiations" in federal supply chains—with the assumption that strikes are an indication of some structural deficiency inside a union.

We need as many victories where the courts say "you have the right to…." to push back against the idea that we somehow do not have that right when it is inconvenient. But, we also need to assert that there is nothing broken when there are strikes. Strike will happen for as long as there is capitalism.

Maybe even under different economic programs.

The right to organize results from the right to strike. Using that right is not an indication that something is broken in the union or some structure of negotiations. Under capitalism, it is an indication of a healthy union democracy and an expected outcome of an economic power struggle.