September 11, 2023

The devastation in and around Ouirgane, Morocco, shows the power of the planet's instability to affect life.

The time-frame for this kind of quake is about 100 to 150 years. Just short enough to say things like "worst quake in a hundred years" and just long enough for builders to ignore the obvious and inevitable threat they pose.

For now, the focus is on dealing with the emotional and economic aftermath of this blunt reminder that the planet is not really all that stable.

However, we will eventually have to ask the question of how—in a time when we have so much wealth—folks in even a fairly wealthy part of the world are faced with this kind of structural tragedy.

As a species, in these economic systems, we seem unable to plan for the most obvious disasters. Building codes that deal with 6.8 (or "Strong") earthquakes have existed for a long time with earthquake resistant structures using designs invented in the 1800s receiving only "slight to moderate damage". There are about 100-150 of these quakes per year around the world.

This region of Morocco is very old, but most buildings have been upgraded and or built in the previous 100 years.

The predominant vulnerable building types are adobe block and unreinforced brick with mud construction. (USGS)

When you see pictures like this one, you have to wonder how it was allowed to be built at all:

It is cheap to build with these materials, but there is more going on here. Quakes in this region are not new. Older buildings tend to weather these events better even though they are made of the same stuff. While this might be survivorship bias because they are the buildings that have survived previous quakes, it does show that there is a way to build structures that are tolerant of at least this magnitude of quake.

Technology and its (mis)application play a role here. The economics of building infrastructure—be it housing or mega ports—is the same. We have the opportunity to invest in the upgrade of infrastructure to meet our needs every time we invest in anything. Upgraded safety, upgrades in materials, upgrades in efficient designs, taking into consideration the natural world, and investment in the type of structures that save lives as opposed to put them in mortal danger.

It is a choice to invest or not invest in human need. Short term economic choices, are also long-term moral choices of where resources are put and how we structure the economy to make those choices.

These disasters should be a reminder that we are making the wrong economic choices and that those choices have severe consequences to real people down the line.

In the context of climate change, geological history, and the short view of time that we are fixed into on economic issues, it is important for socialists to constantly point out the long-game.

Europe is not in great shape. Rising inflation and a stalling economy. The financial news agencies are all about showing the USA doing better than the EU economically. All of them I read this morning failed to mention that there is a war going on in Ukraine.

The issue in Europe is that Germany is being hit with some very hard manufacturing truths: their entire production program is dependent on natural gas and cheap energy. Two things that have disappeared since their energy programs shift and the loss of cheap Russian gas.

Things will not change there until a solution is found to transition to other sources of energy for production. If ever.

According to the employer

The UAW is asking for more billions than that, but there is a cost to the bargaining agreement for capital either way.