October 25, 2023

The UK is facing failure in its ability to build reliable employment statistics.

The response rate on their labour force survey has declined so far since the pandemic that the ONS has had to look for different metrics.

The labour force survey is one of the most important data points for economic planning by capital (and the state) as it shows growth or contraction in the labour market. This affects decisions of the central bank, capital investment, wage decisions, and subsidy regimes of government.

The labour force survey is a survey sent to a representative 36,000 households on job gains, layoffs, wage growth, training, retirement, and general economic activity. It has been used since 1992.

The decline in accurate data is a direct result of surveys moving from face-to-face interview to telephone. Response rates are below 40% now, down from 50% in 2010.

Instead of the labour force survey, the ONS has had to use tax and benefit claims for this round of statistics, which it said were "experimental".

The next real labour force survey will only be available in Spring 2024.

This comes as statistics from the government agencies have had a problem estimating the strength/weakness of the UK economy. The official mood in the UK is that the economy is doing much worse than it actually is. This is partly due to a focus since Brexit on bad statistics coming from the ONS, only to have had those negative stats revised up significantly half-way through 2023.

Wage rates continue to rise in the UK with ongoing price increases leading to higher labour demands. These demands come later in the price cycle and should continue even as employment falls and price increases start to fall.

However, the central bank is barely paying attention to any of that as they try to drive the economy into a slowdown based on bad statistics.

As we head into winter, health services see an uptick in care needs.

COVID, flu, colder weather, poor quality food, norovirus, shorter days, depression. The list of seasonal issues that health services face are long and come as a surprise to policy makers every year.

Health services track the support from volunteer groups, labour tightness, and resources to monitor how well prepared they are for the winter onslaught.

Unfortunately, many countries are concerned that this year things are going to be worse than last year.

There is a decline in the number of people getting COVID vaccine boosters and flu shots because of a decline in public service announcements identifying the need. On top of this, the labour situation for our health care system is generally bad. Lower number of workers coming in, governments cutting back on pandemic funding supports, and the seeming lack of good lessons learned from the pandemic about the importance of well funding public health systems.

In the UK, the NHS has been purposely targeted for funding cuts by the Tories leading to a care crisis coming this winters, according to NHS heads.

The hospital strikes and extra strain on the NHS over the summer, resulting from underfunding of the health service, has not helped. The strike has cost the health service about £1.4bn, a drop in the bucket of health funding, but not insignificant.

The money added by the government this year for winter support stands at about £16bn, but that had not lead its way into the pockets of workers who are having trouble making ends meet.

The program of cuts to pay is having the desired policy effect. Anaesthetists and other in demand specialists have threatened to cancel contracts in the public sector as they work mostly in private clinics.

The crisis is one made to drive people to the private sector to receive treatment.