May 10, 2024

The commodity market trading price of some major foods are following an upward trend.

We started with cocoa, but now coffee is way up as well. Demand increases (in the blame China narrative) are being blamed, but it isn't that. It is speculation within the commodity trading floors that the "bad weather" is affecting growing of coffee and chocolate inputs.

Futures of robusta coffee rallied more than 70% over the six months through April to hit the highest price in more than four decades. Cocoa prices have more than doubled this year to a record last month.

Also up is the price of wheat. Climate change (and local issues) related drought and war have put significant pressure on wheat production.

Stocks of principal field crops were reported by STC to be 7% lower compared to December 31, 2022.

Carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are expected to decline marginally as the downturn in production offsets a decrease in exports. (StatCan)

Rice is surging in some parts of the world as well. Specifically, the purchase price of rice in Nigeria.

India is using food price management through import tariffs during the election to saw votes. The duty on pulses like lentils and chickpeas have been dropped to reduce food price inflation. Canadian farmers will be happy about that, but it does speak to the importance of food in politics.

China has approved genetically altered wheat that can withstand drought better. The varieties are unlikely to be cheaper, but they are betting that wheat that you can eat is better than cheap wheat that doesn't grow.

As the news continues to fret over the potential of a rail strike by Teamsters, the bigger issue for supply chains security continues to be climate change's impact on what the supply chain is carrying.

Watch for news about a new OpenAI tool coming online Monday that will attempt to take on Google for search. It will mean that people will have short (and wrong) synopses of topics as quick takes even easier.