March 10, 2022

US inflation is getting going

The IMF is sticking its nose in the policy decisions of the world economies. It is trying stoke some fear that "stagflation" (a uniquely stupid term used by neoclassical orthodox for critiquing Keynesian economics) is back.

The IMF and other orthodox pushers of profit over everything are mobilizing against the idea of price controls or any government intervention into the economy like support for poor people or allowing wages to rise.

The main thrust from the ortho-cons is that labour is weak so luckily we don't have to worry too much about inflation.

Here is an example of their stupid, ignoring the real cause of inflation (spending pretend money on profit subsidies and private pivot to consumer goods).

On the wage side, in some countries -– like the U.S. and U.K. -– negotiating power has fallen so much since the 1970s that labor has little leverage to bargain with. Germany, where unions remain relatively stronger, offers a telling example of some lessons learned.

After the 1973 oil shock, labor unions responded to inflation of close to 8% by pushing through double-digit pay rises. That helped tip the economy into its worst slump since World War II –- and effectively ended full employment.

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The reality is, the excessive response by the State to save capital profits has driven this inflation – of which I include the war in Ukraine.

Disney's conservativism on display

The "Don't Say Gay" bill in Florida (similar to traditionalist and neofascist bills aimed at undermining women and LGBTTQI+ people in other states like Georgia) was not opposed to by Disney's executive until public outcry.

The ability of the monopoly companies in the US to produce culturally quasi-progressive content (and be targeted by conservative activists) have always been in contradiction to the flow of money and support from the companies' profits to the right-wing political causes.

The Florida bill, which is aimed at curbing discussions in schools about sexual orientation and gender identity among children aged nine and younger, was passed by the Florida state legislature on Tuesday. Officially known as the Parental Rights in Education act, it will require DeSantis’s signature to become law.

Activists have criticised Disney for contributing to politicians who have subsequently supported the legislation. Chapek appeared to nod to such concerns by pledging to reassess Disney’s “approach to advocacy — including political giving in Florida and beyond”.

Joni Madison, interim president of the Human Rights Campaign, said the group would refuse the [$5M] donation from Disney until it saw more evidence that the company was working with LGBTQ+ advocates to block or overturn “dangerous proposals”.

Right wing elected in South Korea

The socialist left in Korea has been a vocal critic of both leaders, but have also insisted that the country should keep the conservatives out. It is lead to some odd campaign slogans.

The new president will be tougher on the DPRK and China, which is not a good thing in today's political climate.

[The] Democratic party retains a supermajority in the South Korean national assembly after a landslide victory in parliamentary elections in 2020.

Critics labelled his campaigning style “K-Trumpism”, after he praised a former authoritarian president responsible for the massacre of protesters as “good at politics”, and blamed feminists for South Korea’s low birth rate.

Former prosecutor’s victory will probably lead to a closer alignment between Seoul and Washington

Yoon, 61, a career prosecutor who entered politics just last year, edged out his rival Lee Jae-myung of the progressive Democratic party by a margin of less than 1 per cent with 98 per cent of votes counted.

Social Democrats in Sweden and Finland

The right wing in both countries is winning the narrative around NATO. Finland is moving forward with "discussions" around joining NATO and Sweden's SDs are being attacked for not moving as fast as Finland.

There is quite simply no need to join NATO for these two countries. The increased military spending in Europe should concern everyone.

These discussions show that Russia's concerns about the NATO expansion east are not ridiculous – even if its response is.

Sweden’s Social Democrat party, which rules in a one-party minority government, has long been anti-Nato, even as it has drawn the country closer to the alliance in the past eight years in power.

Analysts had long assumed Sweden would take the lead in any move to join Nato, as it did with the EU. But increasingly Finland seems more advanced as the country’s political parties promise to discuss the issue openly and comprehensively amid widespread anxiety among Finns over how Russia invaded Ukraine, another non-Nato state.

COVID now as deadly as flu (for most people)

Some new data out of England.

The headlines like this are as dumb as they were at the beginning of the pandemic. The flu is particularly deadly and causes life-long disability. The idea that it is as bad or worse than the flu is hardly a marker of much. Unless your goal is to match public health funding where we assume a "normal" death rate because any more action would be too expensive.

This data should be taken with the information that because COVID-19 is more transmissible than flu, it still kills more people even though the kill rate is the same.

Also, keep out of hospital because if you go there you are highly likely to get it.

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Professor Julian Hiscox, chair of infection and global health at Liverpool university, cautioned against “complacency” over the reduced threat from Covid, adding that the offer of an additional spring booster should be widened from just over-75s and immunosuppressed people to all over-50s.

“We want to avoid dithering with the extra booster now and then getting caught on the back foot,” said Hiscox, who warned that “all of this could be academic if a new variant comes along”.