June 8, 2022

• Used to be that war drove economic growth.
• Seems that is not the case when it is the Russians fighting a proxy war with the USA in Ukraine.

• OECD predictionsq

  • global growth this year to 3%
  • inflation outlook doubled to almost 9% for its 38 members
  • PCE deflator (the important person's inflation number) will be 5.9% this year; 3.5% in 2023.

• The response from the markets to all this news: investors are dumping corporate debt

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned in the AFR. The world's biggest hedge fund is betting on a sell-off in corporate bonds this year.

• Don't blink, you will miss the once in a generation dataset that shows inequality was reduced briefly:

• This will likely reverse back to the recent historical tendency of increasing inequality as recession and inflation bite.
• However, racial inequality in the USA is higher now than it was in the 1980s.

“Even under equal conditions for wealth accumulation after slavery, in other words, identical savings rates and capital gains across the two groups, our convergence model portends a racial wealth gap of 3 to 1 today,” they wrote.

• Affordable housing and investment in education would counter soaring costs, says US Treasury secretary
• higher US interest rates. These will tighten financial conditions globally, and thereby raise the odds of default in emerging market economies with unhedged balance sheets, lagging economic recoveries and shorter-maturity public debt.

• South Korean truck drivers begin unlimited national strike action for Safe Rates
• The International Transport Federation is part of the organizing efforts. Reducing precariousness and safety are the program.
• Police have arrested 25 people so far for blocking some facilities.

• Capital is freaking-out because of this:

Busan is the world’s seventh-largest port, handling 23 million container boxes last year, according to Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries.

“The impact of the strike is already being felt at ports, petrochemical complexes, and other logistics hubs,” said the ITF, which is affiliated with the group on strike – the Cargo Truckers Solidarity division of the Korean Public Service and Transport Workers’ Union.

Almost all trucking activity at petrochemical complexes in Ulsan, Yeosu and Daesan has stopped, the union said in an update on its website Wednesday.

• Omicron variant dual shot, Pfizer also doing one.
• Personal opinion: Going into the Fall it is going to be useful since you can get Omicron multiple times.
• The main issue outlined is the "vaccine fatigue" which seems like it is just an excuse not to spend money telling people why they should get the vaccine.

Many governments have not decided who should receive a fourth dose in the autumn, and whether to provide a booster targeted at Omicron. The US and the UK have already offered fourth doses to some of the most vulnerable groups, including the elderly. In April, regulators in the EU said it was too early to recommend fourth doses for the general population.