June 7, 2024

D-Day and fascism in Europe

It is the kind of sophistication we have come to expect of Europe these days.

They are celebrating D-Day and the victory of the Allies in WWII over fascism in Europe on Friday, while voting in fascist parties in EU elections on Sunday.

Elections technically started on the 6th, but that makes it sound even worse.

Here is France:

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 06-50-55 POLITICO Poll of Polls — French polls trends and election news for France.png

Italy:

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 06-52-38 POLITICO Poll of Polls — Italian polls trends and election news for Italy.png

Germany:

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 06-55-15 POLITICO Poll of Polls — German polls trends and election news for Germany.png

It is not all bad. The far-right in many countries in Europe is not growing as the news would have us believe, but it is there and it is undoubtedly a problem.

Classic social democratic parties seem to be creeping back up. Even in France, the Socialist Party which all but disappeared in the previous national elections is emerging. Mostly because people hate Macron so much.

The normalization of Meloni's fascist Brothers' party is the real worry. Finance and business seem totally fine with her being in power.

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 07-04-49 Points of Return.png

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 07-05-17 Points of Return.png

Commentators keep saying that this doesn't mean other far-right leaders will be as market friendly, but who are they kidding? Far right is the choice if the left is the alternative.

We shall see where this all ends up in the next year or so.

Speaking of Europe

I love this graph produced by the European Central Bank on their inflation expectations.

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 06-11-10 Points of Return.png

It reminds me of the early days of predicting where inflation will be when it was going up. Graphs produced with corrections on a daily basis.

From drought to rain

France's wheat harvest is facing a reduction of near 20% this year because of intense rains.

This spring was the fourth wettest on record, with rainfall up 45% more than the 10-year average between 1991-2020 (BN)

Australia has the same but opposite problem where drought is threatening their wheat production.

Weeks of dry weather delayed plantings and forced a late start to the season in Western Australia — producer of 40% of the nation’s wheat, of which more than 95% is exported mostly to Asia and the Middle East.

/brief/img/Screenshot 2024-06-07 at 07-58-17 Australia’s Wheat Exports Curbed as Dry Weather Parches Fields.png