February 21, 2023

The UK Conservatives have ended-up with an extra £30 billion in the pot because of increased tax revenue from higher inflation.

The Conservatives, because they are bad at this, want to give that money to rich people through tax cuts. Even KPMG, not exactly at the pinnacle of progressive taxation policy, suggests that it be spent on wage increases of health care and other workers.

Tory MPs want the money in their own pockets.

The economic situation has complicated economic models. There is more tax revenue from higher prices, lower tax revenue from people buying less, increase debt burden on family trying to make-up the difference, increase costs to government from the pandemic-related issues, increased cost to government debt (rising 56%—£95.6 billion—this year, the energy price (profit) subsidy regime, a warmer than expected winter, and increased welfare payments as the long recession continues to crush the working poor.

• Energy support included £1.9 billion in direct payments and around £300 million to households in Northern Ireland.
• About £8 billion went to households and companies under the energy price guarantee. (BN)

All in all, it is very difficult to get spending correct. Unfortunately, the Tories think this is a great opportunity to reduce spending and give themselves and their corporate friends more money.

The largest-ever trial of the four-day work week found that most UK companies participating are not returning to the five-day standard, and a third are ready to make that change permanent.

The study involved 61 organizations and about 2,900 workers who voluntarily adopted truncated work weeks from June to December 2022. Only three organizations decided to pause the experiment, and two are still considering shorter hours, data released Tuesday showed. The rest were convinced by revenue gains, drops in turnover and lower levels of worker burnout that four is the new five when it comes to work days.

The time men spent looking after children increased by more than double that of women during the trial.

For most people, work is bad for them. Work less, live better.

Spokespeople for Capital replied however, noticing that pay is a major factor in people working:

However, recent evidence showed plenty in the UK actually want to work more hours. Many see that as a lifeline to boost their earnings in the cost-of-living crisis, according to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, a body for HR professionals.

• Immigration, The Long-Term Care Workforce, and Elder Outcomes in the U.S.
• In an ingenious economic study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, economists find that having more people in the country increases the number of workers in that country. And, with an increase in the number of economic refugees and an increased number of people to exploit in lower-waged health services work, the higher the quality of living for those people receiving care.

I know what you are thinking. And, yes, we did pay economists to do this study. And, yes, academics really do not understand the world. But, ChatGPT will rid us of them soon.

What will they be? The market doesn't know, but some think it will be higher and something that it will be lower than the average person.

Almost as if there is a range of opinion of what will happen in the future and there is no such thing as "the market opinion" when it comes to predicting things.

Sweden continues to face some very tough economic choices. It can either follow the path of crushing its own voter base, or allow them to be crushed under inflation

This is inflation excluding energy. Private services are getting expensive very quickly. One option is leveraging the state's resources to provide some of those services to bring prices down.

However, it is likely that the central bank will respond with increasing rates.

It is a similar picture for the rest of the world, but it will be interesting to look at an economy that still has some social spending capacity.

Keep an eye on this. There are already reports of different animals getting the current nasty strain of bird flu and even some reports that it could be passing between those animals (otters and seals).

If the jump is made to humans and between humans, H5N1 would likely be a pandemic flu.

One answer is to try to inoculate animals who are able to get sick with an H5N1 vaccine. This would increase capacity to produce vaccine for humans—which currently does not exist in needed volumes.

Only a handful of countries such as Russia, China and Egypt have vaccinated animals against avian flu in the past three years. (FT)

Why is this currently an issue? Climate change has altered the pattern of this kind of virus, eliminating the "seasonality" of infection. This means there is no climbdown in infections.

“The virus can be transmitted by contaminated feed, contaminated food, also contaminated trucks,” added Torres. (FT)

Guess who is to blame for under-spending on clean food and transport?

• Russia has halted its participation in New START, the nuclear arms treaty.
• New Start was signed by Obama and Medvedev in 2010

Moscow and Washington are committed to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 long-range missiles and bombers. Each side can conduct up to 18 inspections of strategic nuclear weapons sites every year to ensure the other has not breached the treaty's limits. (Reuters)

It is a difficult treaty to deal with in the USA and this is happening under the auspices of an extension that needs to be negotiated.

• Extending the treaty happened in January, 2021. However, inspections were not really taking place. And, a meeting was supposed to happen November 29, 2022, but was cancelled by Russia for those extensions.

It is really not a good thing.