February 19, 2024

New technology and context always impacts how geopolitical conflict is carried out. Right now the technology is around data and how that data is process about climate change.

Espionage is the word used by the USA and their FBI, but the main concern of the state is that capital is being targeted by criminal groups with some ties to state actors. It used to be that Russian-linked cyber criminal groups were blamed for every incursion in to the USA network. Now, it is a focus on China, where the anti-China sentiment is growing. While Russia continues to be a geopolitical threat, China is now seen by most in the USA state as the main economic threat to Western hegemony and capitalism.

It is a common sentiment across the USA political spectrum as Biden's Dems and Trump continue to go on and on about China.

To this ens, the FBI has been convening meeting of academics, industry, and politicians to convince them that data security is of paramount importance in protecting the USA's economic interests from China.

The current target of Chinese state aligned cyber criminal (hacking) groups are fossil fuel and USA-based energy companies. The goal of many of these actors is access, but in the meantime they are releasing data related to their impact on climate change and operations.

It may seem a little odd that the West is concerned with this given the supposed advanced technology the USA and its allies have. However, the implementation across the economy of new technology is haphazard and unregulated, making it an easy target for those looking to cause mischief. Energy and large transport companies are uniquely positioned here as near-essential pieces of infrastructure as they are notoriously slow at implementing new technology. Why implement new technology when you make so much profit sticking straws in the ground and selling what comes out?

However, if you are a criminal with some tenuous connection to a state on the opposite "side" of the geopolitical game, they make an interesting target. USA infrastructure is key to the economic activity of the USA. If you can shut any of that down, it would make for some powerful leverage in times of conflict.

Additionally, the USA does not like to have its companies embarrassed by information leaking about how hypocritical the USA is when it comes to dealing with global problems. Such as its policies having little to no effect on mitigating climate change. The West is increasing leaning on lecturing the rest of the world on emissions while doing little beyond expensive narrative setting around its own energy industry.

These two issues make energy infrastructure, which includes data, a target for malicious actors. And, with the rise in "AI" being used to automate as much as possible as fast as possible and without regulation, it makes an a relatively easy target.

The response should be clear. It should not be so much about convincing people that it is a problem, it should be about taking a holistic view of data, public access, and oversight. Our companies hide data, hide major deficiencies in our infrastructure, and spin false narratives about what they are doing to avoid regulation.

The answer is to both secure that data and make it less of a target by building public disclosure into the system. This would build trust in those regulatory systems, increase capacity to identify bad actors, and (actually) regulate properly.

Getting back to a regime of state oversight is the first step to developing a plan for real energy transition, safe and secure infrastructure, and building endemic capacity for production if we are really concerned with foreign actors affecting our infrastructure.

Nuclear fuel

The big push on for building more nuclear energy generating capacity hit a major snag with the invasion of Ukraine. Russia's state nuclear energy company makes most of the highly enriched Uranium needed to run new generations of nuclear power plant. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) need a steady supply of highly enriched Uranium and so do many new European designs.

The USA has not yet put forward sanctions on the Russian nuclear company for fear it will drive Uranium prices too high. Well, we are there with the price increase and it has reached levels that that the USA and UK can now start ramping-up commercially viable production.

Canada is a major producer of Yellow Cake used for Uranium fuel, but does not have any processes that produce highly enriched Uranium.